According to groundbreaking new research led by Alessio Terzi (Bennett School of Public Policy) and co-authored with Francesco Nicoli (Politecnico di Torino) in PNAS Nexus, the answer is a resounding yes.
The cost of launching cargo into space is now falling faster than steamship freight did during the 19th-century transport revolution, and even faster than solar photovoltaics.
This research reveals that space is rapidly transitioning from a scientific frontier into a highly commercialised, active marketplace.
Key takeaways
- Plummeting Costs: In 2025, the average cost of launching a kilogram of payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) was $3,868. This is projected to drop by over 58% to $1,569 by 2030, and could plummet to just $273 by 2040 – a staggering 93% overall decline.
- The “Learning Curve”: Every doubling of cumulative payload cuts launch costs by 21.2%. For comparison, steamship freight costs fell by 15.5% per doubling during the Industrial Revolution.
- The Power of Markets: While state competition defined the Cold War Space Race, cost efficiency truly accelerated after 1989 with international cooperation and private sector involvement. In fact, launch costs fell 2.5 times faster after the Berlin Wall came down.
- A Growing Economy: The space sector was worth over $600 billion in 2024 and is projected to double by 2030, when launch capacity will reach 9,100 tonnes per year.
However, as space becomes an open economy, it brings complex public policy challenges:
- Monopoly Risks: The launch market is heavily concentrated. SpaceX currently accounts for roughly 80% of the total annual payload sent into orbit. Dr. Terzi’s research compares this frontier dominance to the East India Company’s hold on maritime trade in the 1820s.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Rising geopolitical rivalries could lead nations to prioritise sovereign launch capabilities rather than global market integration, fracturing the market and driving up costs.
From orbital solar power and asteroid mining to manufacturing 3D-bioprinted organs in zero-gravity and offshoring carbon-heavy, polluting industries beyond our atmosphere, the economic and environmental policy implications are vast.
Says Dr Alessio Terzi, Assistant Professor at the Bennett School of Public Policy:
“As launch costs fall and commercial activity expands, we are entering an era where spacefaring is like any other economy, driven by incentives, trade and investment – and economists and policymakers should be paying much more attention.”
- View the media coverage in Der Standard (AT), The Times, Space.com, Space Daily
- Read the full story: Space cargo costs could fall more than 90% by 2040
- Launch into the paper published in PNAS Nexus: From Sputnik to Starship: Estimating the experience curve of space launch technology
The views and opinions expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Bennett School of Public Policy.
